Análisis diario

10-10-2013 Ninth Day of U.S. Shutdown Sees Mixed Markets

Publicado el: octubre 10, 2013 por zoneoptions

USD

The USD showed surprising strength Wednesday given that the U.S. was entering the ninth day of government shutdown.  Several factors contributed to gains in the greenback.  First was the nomination of Janet Yellen for the role of Federal Reserve chairwoman.

Leer el resto…

Currencies

 

USD

The USD showed surprising strength Wednesday given that the U.S. was entering the ninth day of government shutdown.  Several factors contributed to gains in the greenback.  First was the nomination of Janet Yellen for the role of Federal Reserve chairwoman.  She is widely expected to follow Ben Bernanke’s policies closely.  Next was the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes, which contained some language that indicated tapering of U.S. asset purchases could still occur this year.  Finally, rumors emerged of increased talks and cooperation between Republicans and Democrats in resolving the budget and debt ceiling issues.

 

EUR

The Euro was mixed Wednesday as it firmed against the Pound, but softened against the Japanese Yen and USD.  The retreat of the Euro came despite German industrial production reportedly advancing by 1.4% versus estimates of a 1.1% increase.  The EUR/USD sank as Janet Yellen was given the nod as the next U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman, ensuring an orderly transition at the Fed.  The EUR/GBP rose as economic data from the U.K. came in worse than expected, sparking doubts about growth in the U.K.

 

GBP

The Pound fell sharply against rival currencies Wednesday after U.K. industrial production was reported to have fallen by 1.1% versus expectations of a 0.4% rise.  The poor performance created doubts about the strength of the U.K. recovery and sent the Pound lower against world currencies.  It was especially weak against the USD, falling by 0.88% to a three week low.  Against the Euro the Pound dropped by nearly 0.50%.

 

JPY

Japanese investors welcomed the respite provided by the falling Yen Wednesday.  After considerable strength over the past week on safe haven buying, the Yen retreated against world currencies Wednesday as traders increasingly believed that U.S. lawmakers would be able to come to a consensus and resolve both the budget and debt ceiling issues without any major repercussions.

 

Stocks/Indices

World markets were mixed Wednesday, but began with gains across Asia as stocks there rose on optimism over the nomination of Janet Yellen as the next Federal Reserve chief.  Asian markets were led by the Nikkei, which was boosted by the weak Yen for a second day.  European markets did not follow through on the gains in Asia though, falling instead on continued concerns over the ninth day of government shutdown in the U.S.  Even positive German manufacturing data was unable to bring markets in Europe higher.  U.S. markets were mixed themselves as the Dow and S&P 500 posted slight gains, but the Nasdaq fell by nearly 0.50% on continued weakness in tech, which recently was leading the market higher.

 

Commodities

 

Crude Oil

Crude prices plunged to a three month low Wednesday after the Energy Information Agency released oil inventory data showing that oil stockpiles in the U.S. rose by 6.6 million barrels for the week.  Traders had expected only 2.2 million added barrels, and the news sent crude prices skidding lower.  November crude fell by $1.88, or 1.8%, to finish at $101.61 a barrel.

 

Gold

Gold fell Wednesday as it was pressured by outside markets and technical selling.  Falling crude prices and a rising USD sent gold lower steadily throughout the day as traders still remained restrained from using gold as a hedge against the current uncertainty seen in the U.S.  December gold fell $17.90 to finish the trading session at $1,306.80 an ounce.  

 

Market Watch

Gold – The fact that gold has not appreciated in light of the U.S. government shutdown is a testament to the fact that the bears are indeed in control of this market.  Prices may pause around the $1300.00 level for as long as the budget and debt ceiling issues remain unresolved in the U.S., however once that trouble is removed from trader’s minds, we see gold prices moving lower to test the $1200.00 level once again.  That being said, there are still seven days to go until the debt ceiling is reached and if history is any guide, U.S. lawmakers will take the debate to the 11th hour, so we may see gold prices advancing before they head to test recent lows.

Ocultar este artículo

09-10-2013 U.S. Shutdown Beginning to Seriously Affect Markets

Publicado el: octubre 09, 2013 por zoneoptions

USD

The USD showed some uncharacteristic strength Tuesday in light of the U.S. government shut down being in its eighth day.  It was unchanged versus the GBP and EUR by the end of the day and firmed slightly against the JPY.  Price action was a bit choppy as the USD bounced around from session to session.

Leer el resto…

Currencies

 

USD

The USD showed some uncharacteristic strength Tuesday in light of the U.S. government shut down being in its eighth day.  It was unchanged versus the GBP and EUR by the end of the day and firmed slightly against the JPY.  Price action was a bit choppy as the USD bounced around from session to session.  It first firmed during the Asian session, but fell fast as markets opened in Europe.  Once North American markets opened, it recovered and moved back to previous levels.  The North American strength came as U.S. Treasury yields moved higher.

 

EUR

The Euro traded in a somewhat volatile fashion Tuesday, but ultimately ended the day little changed.  In Asian trading the Euro was flat, but once markets opened in Europe it spiked higher against world currencies.  It stayed at those levels for a couple hours, but fell back to prior levels and continued lower once North American markets opened.  This put it back at unchanged levels versus the GBP and USD, while against the JPY it firmed slightly.

 

GBP

The Pound also traded in a somewhat volatile fashion Tuesday, but was ultimately little changed by the close of trading.  During the Asian session we saw the Pound soften against world currencies.  Once markets opened in Europe it reversed course and firmed enough that it remained unchanged versus the EUR and USD, while firming slightly versus the Japanese Yen.

 

JPY

The Yen retreated against world currencies Tuesday in what was characterized as profit taking.  With underlying fundamentals little changed, the Yen softened against world currencies as traders pulled profits out of the Yen, which has been firming against world currencies for the past week as traders have been using it as a safe haven against the current uncertainty in the U.S.  The Yen was especially weak against the USD, which was a welcomed change by the equity markets.

 

Stocks/Indices

 

Markets in Asia moved higher as they seemingly ignored the U.S. government shutdown that was entering its eighth day.  Especially surprising was the Shanghai Composite, which had its first trading day since the U.S. government shutdown took place.  The Chinese benchmark index was up by more than 1% as Chinese traders took little notice of events in Washington DC.  European and U.S. markets did not fare nearly as well as they all dropped broadly.  This was the second day of losses for the week in both Europe and the U.S., and the losses were larger Tuesday than they were on Monday as investor concerns ratcheted to new heights.  The October 17th deadline for the U.S. debt ceiling is now beginning to concern market participants as U.S. lawmakers are being seen to be making little headway on resolving the shutdown or discussing the looming debt ceiling.

 

 

Commodities

 

Crude Oil

Crude traders focused on increasing tensions in the Middle East and moved prices higher on global supply concerns Tuesday.  Gains could have been higher, but were capped when the IMF released a report that lowered its global growth forecast.  November crude added $0.46, or 0.5%, to finish at $103.49 a barrel.

 

Gold

Gold prices were basically unchanged Tuesday as traders are taking a wait and see attitude to the current government shutdown and the impending debt ceiling.  Should the U.S. credit rating receive  a downgrade, or worse should they default on their debts, we can expect gold prices to shoot considerably higher.  By the close of trading, December gold fell by $0.40 to finish at $1,324.70 an ounce.

 

Market Watch

Crude Oil – With tensions increasing once more in the Middle East, oil prices are looking to move steadily higher.  A good gauge of the strength of oil prices will be today’s Energy Information Agency weekly U.S. oil stockpile data.  Last week there was a surprise increase of 5.5 million barrels and indications are that oil stockpiles will increase again this week.  Markets are only looking for a 0.9 million barrel increase so a larger jump should push oil prices lower, unless traders are placing more weight on potential supply interruptions caused by more violence in the Mid-East.

Ocultar este artículo

08-10-2013 World Markets Fall on Shutdown/Debt Limit Worries

Publicado el: octubre 08, 2013 por zoneoptions

USD

 

The USD continued to retreat as lawmakers are making no progress in resolving the U.S. government shutdown and the more critical debt limit issue.  The USD/JPY has dropped below 97.00 and is now at a two month low, while the EUR/USD is poised to move to a 10 month high.

Leer el resto…

Currencies

 

USD

 

The USD continued to retreat as lawmakers are making no progress in resolving the U.S. government shutdown and the more critical debt limit issue.  The USD/JPY has dropped below 97.00 and is now at a two month low, while the EUR/USD is poised to move to a 10 month high.  Investors are increasingly moving out of the USD as the government shutdown drags on and the debt ceiling approaches.  Continued dollar weakness can be expected for as long as the U.S. fiscal woes remain.

 

EUR

 

The Euro firmed against the USD Monday, but a weaker than expected investor sentiment number sent the Euro lower against the GBP and JPY, both of which were strong in their own right Monday.  Germany releases critical factory order and trade balance data today, which could have an impact on the Euro if either comes in stronger or weaker than expected.  Germany has been the engine of growth for the Eurozone and any weakness there will impact the currency for the entire region.

 

GBP

 

After falling on profit taking during the past two sessions, the GBP recovered against the USD and EUR on Monday.  It was flat against the JPY, but that was as much a function of the Yen strength as investors move into it as a safe haven against a worst case scenario in the U.S.  U.K. private sector retail sales data is due out today which has moved the Pound higher over the past several months as the U.K. consumer base recovers.  A similar surprise to the upside today would be expected to send the GBP/USD over 1.6200 considering the current USD weakness.

 

JPY

 

The Yen continues to appreciate against rival currencies as investors use it as a haven against current uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe.  Against the GBP it has remained much less strong as the U.K. economy continues to show consistent improvements.  The USD/JPY is likely to continue sinking for as long as the U.S. government remains shutdown and the debt ceiling is not raised.  Once these two events occur however, we could see a rapid rise in the USD/JPY as it corrects back to levels from before the U.S. government shutdown.

 

Stocks/Indices

 

World markets were broadly lower Monday as investors around the globe became increasingly pessimistic over the U.S. government shutdown as it entered its second week.  Also dragging on markets is the looming debt limit in the U.S., which could cause the first ever default in the U.S. if it is not raised by the October 17th deadline.  The fact that U.S. lawmakers appear to be making little to no progress on either issue has markets spooked and investors are beginning to plan for the worst case scenario.  It should be noted that when a similar event occurred in the summer of 2011, the S&P 500 lost 17% in the short span of just two weeks.

 

Commodities

 

Crude Oil

 

Crude oil was not immune to the concerns over the fiscal woes in the U.S. as prices sank Monday.  Traders were understandably concerned about the impact on oil demand of the current shutdown of the U.S. government and also began to price in the possibility of a U.S. credit default should the debt limit not be raised in time.  By the close of trading Monday, November crude fell $0.81, or 0.8%, to finish at $103.03 a barrel.

 

Gold

 

Gold began to act as a safe haven Monday as investors began to protect themselves from a worst case in the U.S.  Also helping gold move higher was the weaker USD index.  By the end of the trading session, December gold had added $13.80 to finish at $1,323.80 an ounce.

 

Market Watch

 

Japanese Yen – The Yen has continued to appreciate, especially against the USD as the government shutdown drags on and the debt ceiling approaches.  While continued Yen strength is expected while there is no resolution to the U.S. woes, a rapid reversal could occur as the Yen moves back to fundamental levels if the U.S. comes to an agreement on its budget and the raising of the debt ceiling.

Ocultar este artículo

7-10-2013 Markets Still Unimpressed With U.S. Shutdown

Publicado el: octubre 07, 2013 por zoneoptions

USD

 

The USD was able to firm against most world currencies Friday, even as the U.S. government shutdown entered its fourth day.  There was some encouraging news indicating that an agreement was close to being made between lawmakers that could end the shutdown early next week,

Leer el resto…

Currencies

 

USD

 

The USD was able to firm against most world currencies Friday, even as the U.S. government shutdown entered its fourth day.  There was some encouraging news indicating that an agreement was close to being made between lawmakers that could end the shutdown early next week, which was encouraging to currency traders.  The USD firmed solidly against both the Euro and the Pound.  Against the Yen, the USD was unchanged for most of the day, but began to edge higher near the close of trading.

 

EUR

 

The Euro saw mixed trading action Friday as it softened against the Yen and the U.S. dollar, but firmed against the Pound.  The EUR/GBP rise was mostly due to technical pressure, as traders were beginning to view the strong Pound as overextended and technical profit taking ensued.  The Euro did get some relief in the form of easing political tensions in Italy, but the Euro region is still struggling with weak inflation, poor credit creation, and overall low growth.

 

GBP

 

The Pound fell against world currencies on Friday as traders took profits from the currency, which is becoming view as overbought after its recent gains.  There were also some mixed economic data that helped to put pressure on the Pound, as investors increasingly have high expectations for the recovery in the U.K.

 

JPY

 

The Yen continued to firm against world currencies Friday, with healthy gains against both the Euro and the Pound.  Against the more widely watched USD cross, the Yen was unchanged for most of the day, but began to retreat late in the trading session.  As long as the political circus continues in the U.S., we can expect the Yen to remain strong as investors use it as a safe haven currency to distance themselves from the risks seen in Western currencies.

 

Stocks/Indices

 

Markets were largely immune to the continuing U.S. shutdown on Friday, though there were some concerns from Asian traders, where markets retreated slightly Friday in caution ahead of the weekend.  European markets also began the day to the downside on concerns over the shutdown, but some positive news later in the day regarding a potential end to the budget impasse allowed European markets to recover and end the session to the upside.  U.S. markets opened unchanged and spent the day climbing steadily higher as they attempted to erase the losses from earlier in the week.  The S&P 500 did not quite make it though, as it gained 0.89% for the day, but was still off by 0.1% for the week.  The Dow fared even worse, with a 1.2% loss for the week, while the Nasdaq gained 0.7% for the week as technology stocks continue to lead the markets.

 

Commodities

 

Crude Oil

 

Crude prices moved higher Friday as a potential hurricane was developing in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to disrupt oil supplies from the platforms and refineries of the Gulf area.  By the close of trading, November crude was up by $0.53, or 0.5%, to finish at $103.84 a barrel.

 

Gold

 

Despite the uncertainties created by the shutdown of the U.S. government, gold did not behave as much of a safe haven during the week as it fell on a weekly basis.  December gold was down by $29.30 for the week, or 2.2%, to end the session Friday at $1,309.90 an ounce.   Analysts expect gold to begin appreciating more on safe haven demand as the budget impasse drags on and as the U.S. nears the debt ceiling deadline of October 17th without a resolution to that issue.

 

Market Watch

 

Crude – Expect crude prices to retreat significantly as traders return from the weekend and learn that tropical storm Karen has died off and there will be no disruptions to oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.  The possibility of such supply disruptions sent crude higher Friday, but with the threat gone, there is very little news out there that is conducive to higher oil prices right now.

Ocultar este artículo

Datos en tiempo real

 

 

Leer más